Please refer to the attached file.

ABOUT THIS REPORT

Aim and scope

This report outlines seven risks of emerging or deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan between June–December 2026. The risk analysis aims to support humanitarian decision makers in anticipating potential escalations in humanitarian needs, displacement, humanitarian access constraints, and service disruptions to inform proactive preparedness and response planning. These seven risks were selected based on their relevance to humanitarian decisionmaking. They were identified based on emerging triggers, conflict and political developments, and deteriorating trends likely to worsen humanitarian outcomes over the next six months. Data collection, triangulation, and validation ACAPS used a combination of secondary data review, joint analysis, and targeted external consultation to identify risks and assess their probability and potential humanitarian impact through trends analysis, precedent analysis, and the triangulation of operational and contextual information.

• Secondary data review: the ACAPS team reviewed publicly available data and information to identify emerging developments, escalating trends, and deteriorating conditions likely to heighten humanitarian needs, including displacement, humanitarian access constraints, service disruptions, and food insecurity. The review included reports, datasets, and knowledge products from humanitarian organisations, research institutions, and media sources covering Sudan.

• Key informant interviews (KIIs) and external reviews: ACAPS conducted a limited number of KIIs and external reviews with operational responders working in humanitarian INGOs and NNGOs in Sudan. These consultations were used as a supplementary input to gather insights, collate operational perspectives, and validate findings.

• Joint analysis meeting (JAM): ACAPS facilitated a joint analysis session with over 15 participants working in humanitarian implementation and advocacy in Sudan, including participants from local and international organisations, as well as UN agencies. The JAM served as a key component of the risk identification and assessment process by supporting the identification of emerging developments, operational concerns, and potential humanitarian impacts. It also contributed to the probability and impact assessment by allowing for a comparison of perspectives across organisations, sectors, and geographic areas, helping identify areas of convergence, divergence, and uncertainty in available information. The session also helped to triangulate validation by providing a structured forum to sense-check preliminary findings, challenge assumptions, and refine the credibility of key information.